Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Evan Bahy retires
I'm sure everyone has heardby now that Evan Bahy is retiring unexpectedly. I still like the democrats chances to hold the seat, but we'll just have to wait and see. the republicans have a slightly better chance of taking the senate but I still doubt that they will.
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Do Republicans Have a chance totake back the senate?
Early this year polls have started to show that things are looking bad for the democrats. Now I feel that polls have bottomed out for democrats, and that over the next few weeks and maybe the next two to three months, you will start to see them recover. But I will play devils advocate here, to see if the Republicans still have a chance to take back the senate.
In order to regain control they need to pick up nine seats. North Dakota and Delaware have pretty much been gift wrapped and handed to republicans by circumstance. in North Dakota Dorgan Retired and Hoeven stepped in leaving the democrats playbook in shambles. In Delaware the popular moderate congressmen stepped in (Castle) and Beau Biden, who would have made the race a tossup, unexpectedly sided against a run. Both seats are sure to be republican pick ups and thus make the next senate Democrats 57-43.
Now two seats look to be heavily trending in the republican direction. Ironically both Democratic Incumbents will likely lose because Democrats don't care enough about them to donate money to their campaign and/or go out and vote for them. on top of this the republican uproar isn't helping. Polls have started to suggest that Blanche Lincoln (of Arkansas) is in bad trouble and is losing to pretty much every opponent by 5-15 points. In Nevada Harry Reid is also losing to pretty generic republican opponents by 5-10 points. At the moment, both races are leaning republican, and unless something unexpected happens I'd put my money on the GOP to win both (Lincoln could unexpectedly retire, Reid could lose his primary, Health care could change, but that's another story). So if both races go the way its looking Democrats margin falls to 55-45.
Two races are kind of teetering on the brink. I'm talking about Colorado and Pennsylvania. In Colorado, the only company that has done a lot of polling thus far is Rasmussen, which is heavily conservative this cycle. They have Bennett going down by about 7 points, However every non-Rasmussen poll taken so far has Bennett winning. I don't trust Rasmussen's numbers for a second. I think In Reality Bennett is probably losing by 2-5, But I like his chances of coming back. In Pennsylvania, again there hasn't been a lot of serious polling done in a while. Rassmussen and Franklin and Marshall put out polls recently that have spector down by 9 and 14 and Sestak down by 8 and 22. Again I don't trust these numbers at all. The last quinnipiac (In December) had the race tied, so I think tommeys probably up by about 5, but there is a major ex-factor: The heated primary between Sestak and Spector. Right now many Sestak supporters are saying that they wouldn't vote for Spector and Visa Versa, and when the dust settles from the primaries, they'll find them selves on the same side (Probably Spectors). I like both democrats to come back however for the sake of arguement let's say they don't, this would mean Democrats have the senate by a margin of 53-47.
In Illinois Democrat's chances were boosted when Alexis Gulianis won the primary. As of now he's leading by about five, but again I think this will go up as time passes. but let's say things get worse for democrats and they lose this seat. This brings Democrats Margin down to 52-48.
The GOP probably only has about a 15-25% chance of getting to this point. My guess is that right now the 50% mark is at 54-46 but it will move up for democrats. Lets take this 15-25% chance for Republicans to pick up 7 and make the senate 52-48. This is where the GOP's chances run into a thick wall.
The GOP to take back the senate would need to take 3 of 4 strong, but not completely safe democratic seats. 50-50 is not good enough for the GOP, because Joe Biden is the tie Breaker. they need a 49-51 seat majority to be able to do anything.
The four seats in question are Fiengold's Wisconsin, Bahy's Indiana, Boxer's California, and Gillenbrand's New York.
Let's look first at Indidana; Rassumussen put out a set of polls indicating that Bahy was only ahead by 3 and losing in some matchups. However this week Daily Kos/ Research 2000 put out a set showing where the race is actually at in the estimation of probably all experts, Bahy by 12-20. I don't like the GOP's Chances there.
In California, Rassmussen, has again tried to make it look close, putting out polls where Boxer is ahead by as little as 3. How ever the much more respected Field poll, and PPIC have put out polls that she is actually up by 17 and 8 on Carly Firina, and 10 and 4 on Cambell. Keep in mind that it is alot harder to Move California 4 points to the right, than it is to move Indiana 4 points to the right. My guess is that Boxer's margin may shrink to as little as 3 but the state can not turn red.
In New York it might be close if Pataki get's in but if not Gillenbrand is a sure shot winner. Pataki would make the race a tossup, but to be quite honest I like Gillenbrand either way.
In Wisconson Little to no polling has been done, but Democrats like Fiengold, and his approval remains relatively high. He should win easily, but maybe, just maybe he won't.
I'll give the GOP a 2-5% chance of taking back the senate, if that isn't specific enough then I'll estimate it at about 3.5%. and probably about a 5% chance of the senate Being 50-50 or better.
The odds are slim but Democrats should not take these seats for granted; Republican's still have a shot, slim, but existent.
In order to regain control they need to pick up nine seats. North Dakota and Delaware have pretty much been gift wrapped and handed to republicans by circumstance. in North Dakota Dorgan Retired and Hoeven stepped in leaving the democrats playbook in shambles. In Delaware the popular moderate congressmen stepped in (Castle) and Beau Biden, who would have made the race a tossup, unexpectedly sided against a run. Both seats are sure to be republican pick ups and thus make the next senate Democrats 57-43.
Now two seats look to be heavily trending in the republican direction. Ironically both Democratic Incumbents will likely lose because Democrats don't care enough about them to donate money to their campaign and/or go out and vote for them. on top of this the republican uproar isn't helping. Polls have started to suggest that Blanche Lincoln (of Arkansas) is in bad trouble and is losing to pretty much every opponent by 5-15 points. In Nevada Harry Reid is also losing to pretty generic republican opponents by 5-10 points. At the moment, both races are leaning republican, and unless something unexpected happens I'd put my money on the GOP to win both (Lincoln could unexpectedly retire, Reid could lose his primary, Health care could change, but that's another story). So if both races go the way its looking Democrats margin falls to 55-45.
Two races are kind of teetering on the brink. I'm talking about Colorado and Pennsylvania. In Colorado, the only company that has done a lot of polling thus far is Rasmussen, which is heavily conservative this cycle. They have Bennett going down by about 7 points, However every non-Rasmussen poll taken so far has Bennett winning. I don't trust Rasmussen's numbers for a second. I think In Reality Bennett is probably losing by 2-5, But I like his chances of coming back. In Pennsylvania, again there hasn't been a lot of serious polling done in a while. Rassmussen and Franklin and Marshall put out polls recently that have spector down by 9 and 14 and Sestak down by 8 and 22. Again I don't trust these numbers at all. The last quinnipiac (In December) had the race tied, so I think tommeys probably up by about 5, but there is a major ex-factor: The heated primary between Sestak and Spector. Right now many Sestak supporters are saying that they wouldn't vote for Spector and Visa Versa, and when the dust settles from the primaries, they'll find them selves on the same side (Probably Spectors). I like both democrats to come back however for the sake of arguement let's say they don't, this would mean Democrats have the senate by a margin of 53-47.
In Illinois Democrat's chances were boosted when Alexis Gulianis won the primary. As of now he's leading by about five, but again I think this will go up as time passes. but let's say things get worse for democrats and they lose this seat. This brings Democrats Margin down to 52-48.
The GOP probably only has about a 15-25% chance of getting to this point. My guess is that right now the 50% mark is at 54-46 but it will move up for democrats. Lets take this 15-25% chance for Republicans to pick up 7 and make the senate 52-48. This is where the GOP's chances run into a thick wall.
The GOP to take back the senate would need to take 3 of 4 strong, but not completely safe democratic seats. 50-50 is not good enough for the GOP, because Joe Biden is the tie Breaker. they need a 49-51 seat majority to be able to do anything.
The four seats in question are Fiengold's Wisconsin, Bahy's Indiana, Boxer's California, and Gillenbrand's New York.
Let's look first at Indidana; Rassumussen put out a set of polls indicating that Bahy was only ahead by 3 and losing in some matchups. However this week Daily Kos/ Research 2000 put out a set showing where the race is actually at in the estimation of probably all experts, Bahy by 12-20. I don't like the GOP's Chances there.
In California, Rassmussen, has again tried to make it look close, putting out polls where Boxer is ahead by as little as 3. How ever the much more respected Field poll, and PPIC have put out polls that she is actually up by 17 and 8 on Carly Firina, and 10 and 4 on Cambell. Keep in mind that it is alot harder to Move California 4 points to the right, than it is to move Indiana 4 points to the right. My guess is that Boxer's margin may shrink to as little as 3 but the state can not turn red.
In New York it might be close if Pataki get's in but if not Gillenbrand is a sure shot winner. Pataki would make the race a tossup, but to be quite honest I like Gillenbrand either way.
In Wisconson Little to no polling has been done, but Democrats like Fiengold, and his approval remains relatively high. He should win easily, but maybe, just maybe he won't.
I'll give the GOP a 2-5% chance of taking back the senate, if that isn't specific enough then I'll estimate it at about 3.5%. and probably about a 5% chance of the senate Being 50-50 or better.
The odds are slim but Democrats should not take these seats for granted; Republican's still have a shot, slim, but existent.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Illinois Senate Update- Gulianis and Kirk win
So as expected until a couple days ago the senate race in Illinois will be Gulianis Vs. Kirk. at the moment it looks like Gulianis is leading Kirk by about 5.
The Democrats are starting to look shakey in the senate but remember, 9 months is a long time. If the election were today my prediction would be that the democrats lose 5 seats (NV, DE, ND, AR, CO) and gain one (MO) Making the senate 56-44. Spectors looks like a tossup but I think after the primary, when the Sestak-Spector race cools down it'll end up in the Democrats Coulomb.
In the house (it may be early) I see democrats losing 20 making the count approximatly 236-199. It looks like moderate losses for the Democrats this year, but again 10 months is a long time. In Febuary '06 no one even dreamed the Democrats would take over the senate. In Febuary '08 most pundits thought Hillary would be the nominee (not me, I picked Barack).
so yeah.
The Democrats are starting to look shakey in the senate but remember, 9 months is a long time. If the election were today my prediction would be that the democrats lose 5 seats (NV, DE, ND, AR, CO) and gain one (MO) Making the senate 56-44. Spectors looks like a tossup but I think after the primary, when the Sestak-Spector race cools down it'll end up in the Democrats Coulomb.
In the house (it may be early) I see democrats losing 20 making the count approximatly 236-199. It looks like moderate losses for the Democrats this year, but again 10 months is a long time. In Febuary '06 no one even dreamed the Democrats would take over the senate. In Febuary '08 most pundits thought Hillary would be the nominee (not me, I picked Barack).
so yeah.
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