2010 Senate Races at an Early Glance

Happy holidays first off.


My name is Spencer Lindsay, I am I think qualified as an election analyst, in the last two elections I have been very accurate. I have missed only one senate race, no governors races, and been ff by only a combined 10 house seats (5 per election). In my presidential prediction I was off by only one electoral vote and missed just two states that offset each other (I called Missouri for Obama and Indiana for McCain and the opposite happened). Last year my predictions were more accurate than Nate Silver's. If you want to see my complete coverage of 2008 visit Lindsaypolitics101.blogspot.com



My heart is in the senate so lets begin with analysing those races.



Safe Democrat (51)

Vermont (Patrick Lahey)- The Last time Vermont sent a Republican to Washington was 2000 and that was Jim Jeffords (Switched Parties). Their other Senator is a Socialist, and though they have a Republican governor, Lahey is a well respected, long term senator. he'll Win Re-election Easily.

Indiana (Evan Bahy)- Popular two term senator, and the second generation of the greatest political dynasty in Indiana History. He'll win his third without any trouble.

Oregeon (Ron Wyden)- Wyden is very valuable to Democrats, and Oregeon is a Very Blue State.

Washington (Patty Murry)- Another popular Long Term Senator in a Blue State. She's Safe.

Massachusetts (Pat Kirk/Ted Kennedy, Open)- With Ted Kennedy's Legacy on the line, in the bluest state of them all, a Democrat will win.

Maryland (Barbra Mikulski)- again few senators are as respected as Mikulski, and few states are as blue as Maryland. think 70% of the vote, not 51%.

New York (Chuck Schumer)- Schumers Valuable, Popular, and in New York. 'nough said.

Hawaii (Daniel Inouye)- after 8 terms, and being a major contributor in the US annexing Hawaii, Inouyes, 9th term, will come easy.

California (Barbra Boxer)- As a Californian I have to say that the Republicans will not be able to field a candidate strong enough to take down Boxer. She's ahead in polls by 9-16 points and while that might seem a little bit close, it's California. Kerry only won by 10 points. We're a big state and major shifts in our political alignment don't happen over night. Boxer will win.


Democrat Favored (53)

North Dakota (Byron Dorgon)- There is a very good chance Dorgon will win a fourth term. He is another popular senator that his constituents love, but if I were the republican party, I'd have him on my "Hit list". First off North Dakota is a Red State, Obama lost by 8 points. North Dakota isn't Wyoming, but it's not Montana either, it may be the 2nd (Or 3rd if you count Colorado) bluest state in the Rockies, but that's not saying a lot. also John Hoeven is extremely popular. If he runs for the senate, he will crush Dorgon. If the GOP finds the right candidate, things could get ugly for Dorgon, but if not he will win easily.

New York (Christine Gillenbrand)- This race could come down to the decision of one man. Guliani would again probably crush the freshman, but he has already said he won't run. I'm Talking about former Governor George Pataki. Polls show the race is tight, if he runs (Gillenbrand by 2 on average), and he is very capable of winning New York As a Republican, but I wouldn't hold my breath. He probably won't run, but if he does this race becomes close.


Lean Democrat (57)

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)- Honestly I have no idea where this race will end up. Lincoln could win by 15 points or she could loose by 15 points. It all depends on the strength of the republican candidate, and how well she (and Obama) do in the next year. If the wind shifts to the left again, it's hard to see her going down.

Illinois (Rolland Burris, Open)- Rolland Burris is a disgrace, to both Democrats and Republicans. He, in all likelihood, bought the office from Rod Blagoievich. However he is not running for re-election. and it's hard to see even the disgrace of Rod Blagoevich and Rolland Burris Turning Illinois Red. Pat Kirk (R) would be a good opponent to Alexis Gulianis (D), who is young and charismatic and is emerging as the likely Democratic Nominee (and possibly Presidential candidate in 8 or 12 years). In this Match up according to polls Gulianis wins by 3-5. However the Republican base might try to run an Ultraconservative Primary Challenge to Kirk (Who is a moderate). If the "wing nut" wins the GOP has no shot. If Kirk wins I'd say Gulianis has about a 70% chance.

Pennsylvania (Arleon Spector)- Spectors Party change probably will end up saving his career. President Obama has already endorsed Obama, and while it doesn't sit well with some democrats, I bet they'll come around in the end. Polls show the race is tied, but come next November, I expect things to move in spectors direction. If Sestak wins the primary (I don't think he will, he's down 20), He will have just as good a shot as spector.

Missouri (Kit Bond, Open)- even the now conservative Rasmussen, has Robin Carnahan (D), beating Michael Blunt (R). Blunt is a horrible candidate and the carnahan Dynesty is powerful. Right now polls show Carnahan ahead by about 1.5 but my guess is that she is actually ahead by about 4 or 5. I like Carnahan's Chances.

Tossups (5)


Colorado (Michael Bennet)- Before he was appointed to take Ken Salazrs Spot Bennet was virtually unknown, and he is a vulnerable freshmen that will face a tight race no matter who the GOP Nominates. But Colorado has been trending blue, and my guess is that trend will continue. This race will be fun to watch, and both sides have a shot.

Deleware (Ted Kaufman/Joe Biden, Open)- When Mike Castle (R) got in the race everyone jumped on the bandwagon prediction that he will win. That was before Biden (D) started flirting with getting into the race. Not Joe, but Beau (pronounced Bo). An Average of recent polls shows Castle Winning by .67 Points. Beau has Legacy and is popular in the state, Castle is the moderate long time representative of the state at-large. Sure to be one helluva race that goes down to election day, but if Beau dosen't get in to it, its over.

New Hampshire (Gregg, Open)- Congressman paul Hodes (D) is sure to be the Democrats Nominee. The republican's are going to have a primary fight between Charlie Bass (R) and Kelly Ayotte(R). If Bass wins Hodes is the favorite, if not Hodes is not. But no matter what happens in the primary this race is going to be close.

Ohio (Voinivich, Open)- When Voinivich announced his retirement the republicans lost a safe seat. The out come of this race will have a lot to do with the democratic primary between Burner (D) and Fisher (D), which will be a hard fought battle. but parties don't lose because of bitter primary battles, they lose because of weak candidates. Rob Portman (R) is the surefire republican nominee and another person who could be the "Future of the Party", so this race will have a lot to do with the direction of the GOP. lastly Ohio is a swing state so national trends will have a HUGE effect here.

Kentuckey (Bunning, Open)- When one looks at this cycle and asks "who deserves to lose their seat?" four names come to mind: Rolland Burris (D-IL), David Vitter (R-LA), Harry Reid (D-NV) and Jim Bunning (R-KY). Two are stepping out "gracefully": Burris and Bunning. Since Bunning announced his retirement, when he was down by 15-25 points, this race has gone crazy. Both races will comedown to close primaries, and in any scenario this looks like a close race.


Lean Republican (38)

Nevada (Reid)- Sice taking power in 2004, Reid has been arguably the least effective party leader in the history of the senate. even after gaining the majority in 2006, even after gaining the super-majority in 2009, Reid is still seeding things to a seemingly powerless minority (See Health Care, Torture, FISA and many others) . Don't be surprised to see him face a primary challenge, and don't be surprised if a no-name challenger brings him down. In polling against verious republicans he's losing by 5-10 points and as long as Reid is the nominee I expect that to hold.

Louisiana (Viter)- Viter is the one who deserves to lose his seat, who probably won't. He was caught in a prostitution scandel, and has had quiet a time making a complete ass of himself. He faces primary challenges from a porn star and a serious candidate (Stormy Daniels and Jay Dardeen). Dardeen has a shot, but don't hold your breath. Charlie Meacoln will probably be the democrat, and against both Dardeen and Viter he loses by bout 7. If Viter is the nominee he might have a shot. I'd give Viter a 60% chance of hanging on, and thats a shame.


Conneticut (Dodd)- Every cycle you have some one who loses, purely because of momentum, that doesn't deserve to. Last cycle it was Gordon Smith, before that, Lincoln Chafee. This year it looks like Chris Dodd. He is getting blamed for the financial crisis (Which was not really his fault) and for that it looks like he'll lose if rob simmons is the nominee by 10 points. However the GOP may run a right wingger and blow the whole thing, in which case Dodd wins.



North Carolina (Burr)- Burr has been consistantly ahead by 5-10. Had Edwards not been caught in his affair he may have been in good position to take back his seat right now. Mike Easly is another strong potntial candidate but now it looks like Burr will hold on.

Republican Favored (34)


Georgia (Issakson)- If the Democrats come up with the right candidate, they can shut him down. If they could convince some one like Max Cleland or even some one like Martin, Issakson will drop into a dead heat or a loss. Since it seems unlikely, Issakson is ahead by 10 points.


South Carolina (DeMint)- DeMint could be very vonerable. In recent polls he's only beating a generic democrat by 9. But "Generic" and an actual name are far from the same thing. If the Democrats find a strong candidate this race could turn on it's head.


Florida (LeMuix/Martinez, Open)- As long as the beloved Charie Crist (R)wins the primary, he will win the election, but if Mark Rubio (R) wins, it will be a tossup. This race is the race for the Republican party. The Winner is the future of it. If Rubio Wins it will be a hard right wing party for years and years to come, but if Crist wins, the party will move to the center. Either one of these candidates could be president one day.


Iowa (Grassely)- I expect this race to get a lot tighter. Grassely has had some issues with both sides, especially the left. Don't be surprised to see him face a primary challenge. Iowa is a center-left state so expect the DNC to pour money like Crazy into their candidate.


Kansas (Brownback, Open)- There is a vacuum in both parties, but in the end the GOP will probably come out on top in Kansas.

Alaska (Murkowski)- If Knowles (D) gets in the race starts to tighten up. Otherwies the GOP wins Comfortably

Safe Republican (28)

Arizona (McCain)- Since Napolitano's not running McCain can handle what ever the Democrats throw at him.

Alabama (Shelby)- An extremely Consrvative man for an extremely Conservative state.

Idaho (Crapo)- Even Lary Creig couldn't put a Democrat in, in Idaho.

Oklahoma (Coburn)- Democrats would like to think that they have a shot, but they don't.

South Dekota (Thune)- Tom Daschel is the only democrat that could possibly take down Thune, and I doubt he'll run.

Utah (Bennet)- It's Utah. Bennets the most liberal thing thats going to come out of that state.