Senate Update

The Democrats lost Massachusetts this week which a month ago was gift wrapped for them. as for the postmortem on the campaign, I think 3 things factored into it:
1. Martha Coakly was an incredably weak candidate
2. Democrats aren't exactly insprired by the way the health care debates going right now
3.the DNC and DSCC dropped the ball.

Brown will probably lose reelection in 2012. look to someone like Norm Coleman as an example.

Now there have been a few other things.

In Arkanas Blanche Lincolns popularity has dropped like a dart (probably because of the important imfamous role she's played in the health care bill). Democrats are hoping she'll retire and the much more popular Mike Bebee will run. If he run's he's a shoe in, if not it'll be close. right now Lincoln's probably only winning by about 2 so I am moving it from lean democrat to Tossup

In North Dekota, the popular governor John Hoeven got into the race following Dorgans retirement. As I said if he's i, he wins and he is, so I am moving it from tossup to a safe republican pickup.

Some polls are starting to get close in California. Rassmussen has leaned right this cycle and I refuse to beleive Boxer is only winning by 3 points when the Feild poll has her up by 15, so for now at least, I am keeping it as a Safe Democratic seat.

Finally Florida. This is possibly the most important primary race ever. This is a battle for the soul of the republican party. Early on it looked like Crist was a shoe-in but Mark Rubio is putting on a damn good fight. If Rubio wins the country may never be the same; a serious third party, a Democratic manopoly on congress, an ultra conservative republican manopoly on congress and the hispanic demographic suddenly becoming republican are all possible results. Since Rubio is becoming stronger and would not be nearly the general election shoe-in that Crist would be, I am moving this from GOP favored to Lean GOP.

Here are my new Ratings:

Safe Democrat (50)
WI
VT
NY (Schumer)
IN
MD
WA
OR
CA
HI


Democrat Favored (52)
NY (Gillenbrand)
CT


Lean Democrat (55)
PA
IL
MO

Tossups (6)
AR
DE
CO
OH
NH
KY

Lean Republican (39)
NV
LA
NC
FL

Republican Favored (35)
GA
IA
KS
AK
SC

Safe Repbulican (30)
AZ
UT
ID
SD
OK
AL
ND

MA Prediction

First off since this is a special election this is not a formal final call. The race has really heated up in the last 12 days and right now I'm predicting that the republican Scott Brown will win by about 1 point. I still think this could go either way.

First off there is something kind of suspicious to me about the polling. Coakly has lost about 15 points in 12 days, and there hasn't been a major scandal. That does not happen on a senatorial level.

Secondly Obama and the democrats really want Coakly to win, and we all saw their fantastic ground game during 2008. They will be working harder to get out the vote than the GOP. So margins will be slimmer.

Frankly this looks like a race that gets close, every body craps their pants and then nothing comes of it.

I'm watching it more to test the waters of this election season than for any political implications it might have. If Obama needs 60 votes with the senate the way it is, he'll probably get 60 votes.

Brown won't win by 20 points. he might not even win. It'll be close, but remember 10 months is a very long time.

New Developments- New Senate Ratings

Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Byron Dorgon (D-ND) both announced their retirement this week. While some are trying to paint this as a bad thing for Democrats I don't see quite how it is. First off Dodd Stepping down all but assures that Democrats will retain his seat, something that seemed unlikely before. Dorgan Retirement makes a favored seat a tossup. If it ends upas a battle between two no names, the out come will be unpredictable.

Safe Democrat (51)
WI
MA
VT
NY (Schumer)
IN
MD
WA
OR
CA
HI

Democrat Favored (53)
NY (Gillenbrand)
CT

Lean Democrat (57)
AR
PA
IL
MO

Tossups (6)
DE
CO
ND
OH
NH
KY

Lean Republican (37)
NV
LA
NC

Republican Favored (34)
GA
IA
KS
FL
AK
SC

Safe Repbulican (28)
AZ
UT
ID
SD
OK
AL