First off since this is a special election this is not a formal final call. The race has really heated up in the last 12 days and right now I'm predicting that the republican Scott Brown will win by about 1 point. I still think this could go either way.
First off there is something kind of suspicious to me about the polling. Coakly has lost about 15 points in 12 days, and there hasn't been a major scandal. That does not happen on a senatorial level.
Secondly Obama and the democrats really want Coakly to win, and we all saw their fantastic ground game during 2008. They will be working harder to get out the vote than the GOP. So margins will be slimmer.
Frankly this looks like a race that gets close, every body craps their pants and then nothing comes of it.
I'm watching it more to test the waters of this election season than for any political implications it might have. If Obama needs 60 votes with the senate the way it is, he'll probably get 60 votes.
Brown won't win by 20 points. he might not even win. It'll be close, but remember 10 months is a very long time.
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