This is a bit temperary so let's see how Primaries shake out. The only way the GOP has a shoot at taking down Gillenbrand is if Pataki gets in, and that seems unlikely. The Hayward-McCain Primary could change the direction of the race, Christ looks like he's going to lose the primary, but if he runs as an Independent, Florida will go crazy. In Arkansas If Lincoln Loses Democrats win if not they lose. My projection as of today is Democrats 55 Republicans 45.
Safe Dem (49)
WA
OR
HI
WI
VT
MD
NY (Schumer)
CT
Dem Favored (51)
CA
NY (Gillinbrand)
Lean Dem (54)
IL
PA
CO
Tossup (5)
AR
IN
MO
OH
NH
Lean GOP (41)
NV
FL
KY
NC
LA
GOP Favored (36)
DE
SC
GA
IA
AZ
Safe GOP (31)
ND
AK
SD
UT
ID
AL
OK
KS
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Rassmussen Polls: Not to be trusted
Today after weeks of being weary of them, I have dismissed all rasmussen polls as too conservative to even be used in compiling an Average.
The Dagger in the heart of their credability came about two weeks ago when in the same day Rassmussen Relased a Generic Ballot poll with the republicans up by 10 and the AP released one with the Democrats up by 8 (an 18 point discrepency). That same day Quinnipiac, the Most trusted name in polls put out one on the Pennsylvania senate race with Spector up by 7 over Toomey. At this time Rassmussen had pinned this race as Toomey by 9 (A 16 point Descrepency). Today Daily Kos put out a poll pinning the race at Spector by 6.
Today Yet again polls were released signaling major descrepencies of Rassmussen's Accuracy. Rassmussen has Buck leading by 6 over Benet in Colorado. PPP put out a poll with Bennet ahead by 6. Buck by 1 over Romonoff in Rassmussen, Romonoff over buck by 8 in PPP, Norton over Bennet by 9 in Rassmussen, Tied in PPP.
There has been a consistant 10-20 point decrepency between Rassmussen and where the races actually stand, Thus they should be dismissed as Partisan leaning. It is probably because durring the 2008 election they were ascosiated with Fox News, and that has caused an extreme House Effect (Which is a result of the fact that Liberals are more likely take a call from the New York Times than Fox News, Not usually the integrity of the pollster). Because of it's Conservative leanings I will no longer use them in acessing races.
The Dagger in the heart of their credability came about two weeks ago when in the same day Rassmussen Relased a Generic Ballot poll with the republicans up by 10 and the AP released one with the Democrats up by 8 (an 18 point discrepency). That same day Quinnipiac, the Most trusted name in polls put out one on the Pennsylvania senate race with Spector up by 7 over Toomey. At this time Rassmussen had pinned this race as Toomey by 9 (A 16 point Descrepency). Today Daily Kos put out a poll pinning the race at Spector by 6.
Today Yet again polls were released signaling major descrepencies of Rassmussen's Accuracy. Rassmussen has Buck leading by 6 over Benet in Colorado. PPP put out a poll with Bennet ahead by 6. Buck by 1 over Romonoff in Rassmussen, Romonoff over buck by 8 in PPP, Norton over Bennet by 9 in Rassmussen, Tied in PPP.
There has been a consistant 10-20 point decrepency between Rassmussen and where the races actually stand, Thus they should be dismissed as Partisan leaning. It is probably because durring the 2008 election they were ascosiated with Fox News, and that has caused an extreme House Effect (Which is a result of the fact that Liberals are more likely take a call from the New York Times than Fox News, Not usually the integrity of the pollster). Because of it's Conservative leanings I will no longer use them in acessing races.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Big primaries
Tomorrow two of the biggest primaries of the season take place. The heated Marco Rubio-Charlie Crist senate race in Florida, and the Rick Perry- Kay Bailey Hutchinson Governors race in Texas.
The Rubio-Crist race has come to symbolize the infighting in the republican party between the moderates and the conservative. Early on Crist was the heavy favorite, But Rubio has staged a comeback and I predict Rubio will win by about 10 points. However there is a good chance that Charlie Crist will run as an independent, and if that happens be prepared for one of the most interesting senate races in US History.
This could be the "third party uprising" that many pundits have kind of predicted on the back burner for the last 4 election Cycles. Lincoln Chafee (R Turned I-RI) is winning a three way race for governor, and the John Hayward-John McCain Primary could also spark another Major three way race. Perhaps again in Arkansas and Pennsylvania where there are tough Democratic primaries between moderates and liberals, will turn out to be 3-way races. David Vitter may also see a three way race develop if republicans are unhappy enough with him. If every thing goes right we could see up to 5 senate seats and 3 governors races go to independents this cycle (Bringing the total to 7 in the Senate) however this scenario is unlikely. But don't be surprised if one or two senate races and Rhode Islands Gubernatorial race go to 3rd parties.
In Texas, Senator Hutchinson made the decision to oppose Governor Perry in the primary in the summer when her chances looked good, as the governor was talking about secession , however now her chances are shot and she will lose tomorrow by about 13 points.
In other news Harold Ford has dropped his challenge to Christine Gillenbrand in New York. and Brown-Newsom instead of being a primary fight in California, now looks like it will be the ticket for governor and Ltg.
Also major news on Arkansas: it now looks like the very unpopular Blanche Lincoln will have to survive a primary challenge against the Lt. Governor. She will probably lose, but the question is how will this effect the senate race as a whole?
It could renew the democrats hope in the race, or kill their last good shot.
Tomarrow will be exciting, my picks are Rubio and Perry.
The Rubio-Crist race has come to symbolize the infighting in the republican party between the moderates and the conservative. Early on Crist was the heavy favorite, But Rubio has staged a comeback and I predict Rubio will win by about 10 points. However there is a good chance that Charlie Crist will run as an independent, and if that happens be prepared for one of the most interesting senate races in US History.
This could be the "third party uprising" that many pundits have kind of predicted on the back burner for the last 4 election Cycles. Lincoln Chafee (R Turned I-RI) is winning a three way race for governor, and the John Hayward-John McCain Primary could also spark another Major three way race. Perhaps again in Arkansas and Pennsylvania where there are tough Democratic primaries between moderates and liberals, will turn out to be 3-way races. David Vitter may also see a three way race develop if republicans are unhappy enough with him. If every thing goes right we could see up to 5 senate seats and 3 governors races go to independents this cycle (Bringing the total to 7 in the Senate) however this scenario is unlikely. But don't be surprised if one or two senate races and Rhode Islands Gubernatorial race go to 3rd parties.
In Texas, Senator Hutchinson made the decision to oppose Governor Perry in the primary in the summer when her chances looked good, as the governor was talking about secession , however now her chances are shot and she will lose tomorrow by about 13 points.
In other news Harold Ford has dropped his challenge to Christine Gillenbrand in New York. and Brown-Newsom instead of being a primary fight in California, now looks like it will be the ticket for governor and Ltg.
Also major news on Arkansas: it now looks like the very unpopular Blanche Lincoln will have to survive a primary challenge against the Lt. Governor. She will probably lose, but the question is how will this effect the senate race as a whole?
It could renew the democrats hope in the race, or kill their last good shot.
Tomarrow will be exciting, my picks are Rubio and Perry.
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