Big primaries

Tomorrow two of the biggest primaries of the season take place. The heated Marco Rubio-Charlie Crist senate race in Florida, and the Rick Perry- Kay Bailey Hutchinson Governors race in Texas.

The Rubio-Crist race has come to symbolize the infighting in the republican party between the moderates and the conservative. Early on Crist was the heavy favorite, But Rubio has staged a comeback and I predict Rubio will win by about 10 points. However there is a good chance that Charlie Crist will run as an independent, and if that happens be prepared for one of the most interesting senate races in US History.

This could be the "third party uprising" that many pundits have kind of predicted on the back burner for the last 4 election Cycles. Lincoln Chafee (R Turned I-RI) is winning a three way race for governor, and the John Hayward-John McCain Primary could also spark another Major three way race. Perhaps again in Arkansas and Pennsylvania where there are tough Democratic primaries between moderates and liberals, will turn out to be 3-way races. David Vitter may also see a three way race develop if republicans are unhappy enough with him. If every thing goes right we could see up to 5 senate seats and 3 governors races go to independents this cycle (Bringing the total to 7 in the Senate) however this scenario is unlikely. But don't be surprised if one or two senate races and Rhode Islands Gubernatorial race go to 3rd parties.

In Texas, Senator Hutchinson made the decision to oppose Governor Perry in the primary in the summer when her chances looked good, as the governor was talking about secession , however now her chances are shot and she will lose tomorrow by about 13 points.

In other news Harold Ford has dropped his challenge to Christine Gillenbrand in New York. and Brown-Newsom instead of being a primary fight in California, now looks like it will be the ticket for governor and Ltg.

Also major news on Arkansas: it now looks like the very unpopular Blanche Lincoln will have to survive a primary challenge against the Lt. Governor. She will probably lose, but the question is how will this effect the senate race as a whole?

It could renew the democrats hope in the race, or kill their last good shot.

Tomarrow will be exciting, my picks are Rubio and Perry.